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重估算力大基建繁荣：数据中心资本开支进入“资本纪律”时代？_我的网站

A |     With Boris Johnson’s premiership rocked by shock resignations of his Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor Rishi Sunak amid the latest damning scandal, Tory rebels have seen their hopes of toppling the Prime Minister fueled anew. While there was no indication from Johnson on Tuesday night that he intended to quit, as he carried out a speedy Cabinet reshuffle, a leadership contest appeared to be looming on the horizon. This has unleashed speculation regarding who could be in the running to replace the PM.,Rishi Sunak,The ex-Chancellor is tipped by many as the favourite to succeed Johnson as a future leader of the Conservative Party.,At one point Rishi Sunak was top of the regular chart compiled by the ConservativeHome website.,However, his reputation was dealt a severe blow earlier this year by backlash over his billionaire heiress wife Akshata Murty’s non-domicile tax status, albeit there was no suggestion she had broken any rules.,Rishi Sunak Tumbles to Bottom of Tory Popularity Ranks Amid Wife’s Taxes & US Green Card Controversy25 April, 13:50 GMT,Furthermore, Sunak faced questions over keeping his US green card even after taking up the key job of Chancellor at No11. At the time, Sunak slipped to the bottom of the April chart compiled by the ConservativeHome website.,Nevertheless, the Conservative Party membership has overall approved of Sunak, dubbed the “low-tax chancellor”, suggested UK media outlets. Some analysts suggest his approval rating with the public has increased again this month amid measures implemented to support Britons through the cost of living crisis. Others have pointed to criticism of his perceived slow reaction to rising energy bills and insufficient help to the poorest households.,Rishi Sunak remains in the top five MPs most likely to take over from Johnson, with odds of 10/1 according to BetFair Exchange.,Penny Mordaunt,Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for Trade Policy since 2021, had thrown her support behind Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election. After that she exited the Cabinet, but later became paymaster general in 2020. She was subsequently moved to the Department for International Trade.,© AP Photo / Kirsty WigglesworthIn this file photo dated Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2019, Government minister Penny Mordaunt leaves after a Cabinet meeting at Downing Street in London. The international development secretary, Mordaunt has been appointed to replace Gavin Williamson who was sacked Wednesday May 2, 2019, as U.K. defense chief. In this file photo dated Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2019, Government minister Penny Mordaunt leaves after a Cabinet meeting at Downing Street in London. The international development secretary, Mordaunt has been appointed to replace Gavin Williamson who was sacked Wednesday May 2, 2019, as U.K. defense chief. © AP Photo / Kirsty Wigglesworth,At times openly critical of government policy, on May 28, after the publication of the full Sue Gray report into “Partygate,” Mordaunt told the BBC that she was “angry” at Downing Street staff implicated in the row for blatantly ignoring pandemic rules while themselves blocking “reasonable requests to relax restrictions”.,Mordaunt is known to have said, regarding Johnson:,“I didn’t choose this prime minister, I didn’t support him in the leadership contest but he has always had my loyalty.",Penny Mordaunt is currently on odds of 6/1 on most of the major betting sites to replace Johnson.,Sajid Javid,Bromsgrove MP Sajid Javid’s odds appear to be on 19/1, according to various betting platforms. Javid was one of 10 Tory leadership challengers in 2019. He then held the position of UK Chancellor, resigning in February 2020 after Johnson ordered him to fire his team of aides, saying "no self-respecting minister" could accept such a condition. He was brought back into Boris Johnson’s cabinet as Health Secretary in summer 2021, after COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.,© AP Photo / Toby MelvilleBritain's former Health Secretary Sajid Javid speaks during a media briefing in Downing Street, London, Oct. 20, 2021. Britain's former Health Secretary Sajid Javid speaks during a media briefing in Downing Street, London, Oct. 20, 2021. © AP Photo / Toby Melville,Back when he threw his hat in the ring for the 2019 Tory leadership contest, Javid proposed cutting the top rate of income tax. More recently, he was reportedly among those against a windfall tax on oil and gas producers – a stance that might help boost his chances.,On June 6, Sajid Javid stressed his loyalty to the PM amid the “Partygate” row, saying a confidence vote was an “opportunity... to draw a line under all this”.,Jeremy Hunt,Jeremy Hunt, the former Health Secretary who also served as Foreign Secretary, lost to Johnson in the final round of the 2019 Conservative leadership contest. Since then he has been highly critical of the government.,© AFP 2022 / STEFAN ROUSSEAULeadership contender Jeremy Hunt (L) shakes hands to congratulate new Conservative Party leader and incoming prime minister Boris Johnson (R) as the results of the leadership contest are announced at an event in central London on July 23, 2019Leadership contender Jeremy Hunt (L) shakes hands to congratulate new Conservative Party leader and incoming prime minister Boris Johnson (R) as the results of the leadership contest are announced at an event in central London on July 23, 2019© AFP 2022 / STEFAN ROUSSEAU,As chairman of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, he excoriated Johnson’s team for its response to the pandemic. Maintaining a visible profile, he has been giving interviews to outlets, touting his new book and reflecting on the future of the Conservative Party. Thus, he recently warned that the Tories have a "big mountain to climb" if they hope to win the next general election amid fallout from the “Partygate” scandal.,'He's Definitely Running': Jeremy Hunt 'Testing The Waters' To Stand As PM If BoJo Is Ousted1 May, 05:38 GMT,Earlier this month, Hunt told The Times magazine now was not the “right time” for a leadership challenge, but he would “be very open with you that I don’t rule out a return in the future”.,Jeremy Hunt is on odds of 8/1 to take over Tory leadership.,Liz Truss,The Foreign Secretary and MP for South West Norfolk, Liz Truss, has been touted as possible Tory leader at odds of 8/1. “Fizz with Liz” has been a phrase associated with Truss amid reports earlier this year that she hosted MPs in her parliamentary office to allegedly recruit possible backers for a leadership challenge to Johnson.,While securing a series of mini trade deals during her tenure as Trade Secretary, her threats to overwrite parts of the controversial Northern Ireland protocol as well as her sanctions response to Russia over its special military operation in Ukraine reportedly found favour with some Conservative backbenchers. Critics purportedly find Truss’s harsh rhetoric on the NI protocol distasteful.,© Photo : NATO Battlegroup Estonia/facebookLiz TrussLiz Truss© Photo : NATO Battlegroup Estonia/facebook,When questioned recently about the prospect of her own bid to become PM, Truss insisted that Johnson retained her “100 per cent” confidence.,While never confirming she intended to run for leadership, she is known to often pose for choreographed social media posts, such as posing in a tank like Margaret Thatcher.,Nadhim Zahawi,The Education Secretary and MP for Stratford-on-Avon, Nadhim Zahawi, is currently at 12/1 odds to take over Tory premiership.,Zahawi, the vaccines minister during the coronavirus pandemic before being promoted to his current position, is noted for unveiling an education White Paper earlier in the year. Coming in the wake of exams mayhem overseen by his predecessor, Gavin Williamson, the government’s vision for schools for the next eight years was given a ‘muted’ response. “Not much to object to, little to inspire, and inadequate funding to achieve any of its stated ambitions,” one source in the education sector was cited as saying at he time.,© Photo : SJA Tory MP James Gray, Nadhim Zahawi and SJA chief exec Martin Houghton-Brown at the eventTory MP James Gray, Nadhim Zahawi and SJA chief exec Martin Houghton-Brown at the event© Photo : SJA,Zahawi has also been an adamant backer of the current government’s “levelling up” agenda with his renewed focus on standards in schools and the multi-academy trust policy.,Zahawi has also vehemently defended Johnson in multiple media appearances throughout the “Partygate” row.,Ben Wallace,Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary who served in the Scots Guards, has drummed up kudos for his part in the UK’s response to Russia’s special operation to demilitarize Ukraine. His odds are seen as vying for second place with Hunt and Truss on 8/1.,Wallace is believed to have won aficionados among Tory MPs who pressed for the UK to increase its defence spending, despite cuts to the size of the army remaining a niggling cause for concern.,© AP Photo / Alex BrandonThe United Kingdom Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace speaks during a meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd AustinThe United Kingdom Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace speaks during a meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin© AP Photo / Alex Brandon,Ben Wallace has played down any speculation of his perceived interest in the Tory leadership.,Tom Tugendhat,MP for Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat is on odds of 11/1, according to some platforms.,Notably, the chair of the Foreign Affairs committee, who has been strongly critical of Boris Johnson throughout his premiership, became the first Tory MP in January to announce his intention to stand for leader should the PM quit office.,“I think I’m making it pretty clear that I think that it’s up to all of us to put ourselves forward. And it’s up to the electorate, in the first case parliamentary colleagues, and in the second case the party, to choose. I think it’s a position of absolute integrity to say that of course you should offer yourself to the electorate if you think you can do it. Of course you should talk to colleagues and see if you can get a group together, and if you can get a group together you should go for it,” he had stated.,Priti Patel,Home Secretary Priti Patel has introduced a points-based immigration system and was the architect of the controversial Channel migrant deal with Rwanda, which would see illegals sent to the African country for processing. The agreement placed her in the crosshairs of numerous human rights groups. However, the deal has been touted as capable of solving he migrant problem plaguing the government.,Priti Patel's Reported 'League Table of Nations' for Migrant Deportation Ripped as 'Unhinged'Yesterday, 17:26 GMT,Patel was the last member of the Cabinet to confirm her support for Johnson on Monday amid the latest scandal, with her spokesman saying the Home Secretary continued to give her full backing to the PM.,Dominic Raab,Dominic Raab, the Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary, who also served as Foreign Secretary under Boris Johnson, had run against the current PM in the 2019 Conservative election, making it to third round and finishing sixth after rising through the ranks as a Brexiteer.,© AP Photo / Toby MelvilleIn this Thursday, Sept. 1, 2020 file photo, Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab arrives to attend a cabinet meeting of senior government ministers at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office FCO in London.In this Thursday, Sept. 1, 2020 file photo, Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab arrives to attend a cabinet meeting of senior government ministers at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office FCO in London.© AP Photo / Toby Melville,Raab gained praise after his deputising stint for Johnson when the PM was hospitalised with COVID-19 in 2020. However, in the wake of the ‘botched’ NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, Raab came under fire for holidaying in Crete while the Afghan government collapsed, and delegating tasks to junior ministers. He was, accordingly moved from being Foreign Secretary.,A spate of tough reforms aimed at ‘clamping down’ on “wokery” in the legal and prison systems were introduced during his time as Justice Secretary.,Raab has publicly urged the public to forgive the Prime Minister over the “Partygate” scandal.,His leadership odds are at approximately at 28/1.,Boris Johnson ‘On the Brink’,The latest wave of cabinet resignations came in the wake of the Prime Minister attempting to draw a line under the latest scandal to rock no 10. Boris Johnson had been giving an interview admitting he should not have appointed now-suspended Tory MP Chris Pincher as deputy chief whip in February after claims the MP groped two men at a private club on June 30.,With No 10 appearing to tie itself into knots trying to explain why Pincher was ever given a key government position in the first place, considering a slew of damning previous sexual misconduct allegations regarding Pincher, both the opposition Labour Party and the rebel Tories have hike up demands for Johnson to step down.,Boris Johnson ‘Vows to Carry On’ After Sunak, Javid ‘Shell-Shock' Exits Prompt Emergency Reshuffle05:54 GMT,The PM’s position appears increasingly shaky amid reports of a plot to use elections to the influential 1922 Committee’s executive to alter the Tory party rules. Currently, they grant Johnson 12-months' immunity from another leadership challenge. But considering he survived a no confidence vote on June 6 with 41% of his party voting to oust him over the so-called “Partygate” row, his position now appears even more shaky.。    根据麦肯锡（McKinsey）今年稍早发布的测算，全球数据中心容量将从2025年的82吉瓦增至2030年的219吉瓦，相当于现在的2.7倍左右。其中美国占比约45%，约90至95吉瓦。

B | 英伟达（Nvidia）首席执行官黄仁勋近期估算，基于英伟达架构新建一吉瓦算力的成本可能很快达到800亿至1000亿美元。

C | 按此换算，未来五年全球新增产能对应的资本开支是万亿美元量级。         与投入规模同步升温的，是对超大云厂商资本开支的质疑。作为全球芯片板块的先行指标，费城半导体指数（SOX）在过去一个月中下跌了13.38%。         不过，美国投资分析机构NDR首席主题策略师乔西克（Pat Tschosik）在最近一场研讨会上表示，数据中心建设的物理扩张不会因为质疑声而立即放缓，电力设备、变压器、散热系统等物理层建设因两到五年的交付周期已被锁定。他表示，“超级周期尚未走完”，但对训练层资本开支的容忍度，正在进入一个更审慎的阶段。         乔西克在回应第一财经记者关于折旧的提问时说，即便把折旧成本算进去，结论也不会变。“真正重要的还是云销售增长的数字。”他认为，一旦资本开支增速持续跑赢云计算收入增速，“资本开支义警”（capex vigilantes）就会出现，用抛售给出市场信号。         从“训练主导”转向“推理主导”          当前，费城半导体指数（SOX）两年期相对标普500的超额收益，在今年6月已升至125%至150%区间，这是NDR认为的“泡沫观察区”。上一次触及是在2021年2月，同年12月SOX相对强度即见顶。         但从预租率来看，对数据中心的需求目前仍真实存在。据仲量联行（JLL）数据，北美数据中心空置率约为1%，且自2024年底以来维持在这一水平；美国在建产能中92%已经预租，欧洲这一比例为82%。乔西克认为，这组数字说明需求本身仍然存在，建设方也愿意继续投入，但审批流程和电网接入速度构成硬约束，这一瓶颈在欧洲更为明显。

D |          美国银行分析师也认为，未来五年美国将需要超过230吉瓦（GW）的新发电容量，但受监管的公用事业公司预计仅能增加约93吉瓦的合格供应量，从而留下了超过100吉瓦的电力缺口。

E | 报告显示，在此期间，单是数据中心就可能增加大约125吉瓦的美国电力负荷，从而将2026年至2030年的整体电力需求推高至4.1%的复合年增长率。         不过，从更细分的角度来看，乔西克认为，就整体产能建设而言，目前处于“中局”（middle innings）；但专门用于模型训练的产能建设，已经进入“后段”（later innings），从2027年起，新增容量将更多流向推理需求，而非训练需求。         “训练与推理对基础设施的需求曲线并不相同，当训练需求见顶时，围绕训练能力构建的资本开支逻辑将首先面临检验。”他解释说，值得反复追问的是，“这些产能真的用得上吗？推理需求真的会起来吗？”          乔西克提出的另一个变量是生产力兑现的时滞。他的团队测算显示，科技支出占美国国内生产总值（GDP）比重的变化，与生产力提升之间存在约20个季度、即五年左右的滞后关系。据此推算，当前围绕模型训练进行的巨额投入，其对应的生产力回报要到数年后才会显现。         这意味着，即便整个超级周期尚未走完，推理需求带来的下一轮增长仍会到来，数据中心资本开支仍可能在生产力兑现之前，先经历一轮调整。乔西克将这一调整的时间窗口大致设定在两年左右，快于20个季度的历史滞后期，逻辑是一旦云厂商销售增速率先放缓，市场不会等到生产力数据兑现才做出反应。“我的基准情形是，数据中心会经历一轮调整，直到推理端真正开始发力为止。         如何判断数据中心繁荣期的尾声          根据标普全球市场智库（S&P Global Market Intelligence）的数据，2025年数据中心的并购（M&A）交易额达到了约500亿美元，是前一年的两倍多。

F |          乔西克提出，本轮数据中心繁荣可能以三种历史脚本之一收场：供给过剩、需求下滑，或融资枯竭，分别对应1999年、2022年和2008年的教训。         他为每一种脚本给出了一组可以实时追踪的指标。供给过剩是1999年互联网泡沫留下的教训。乔西克列出的观测指标包括数据中心建设周期、空置率和GPU租赁价格。目前建设周期仍需两到五年，尚未出现缩短迹象；空置率如前所述维持在约1%的低位；仲量联行和世邦魏理仕（CBRE）发布的数据均未显示供给过剩的信号。         需求下滑是他称为“最值得对照”的2022年教训。彼时，随着企业削减云计算开支，云厂商销售增速放缓，而资本开支仍在加速，亚马逊和英伟达股价当年跌幅均超过50%。

G | 乔西克提出的判断阈值是：当资本开支增速超过销售增速的1.5倍，市场通常会做出负面反应，这一关系在微软身上同样成立。         “如果只能挑一两个指标来看，第一位是超大规模云厂商的云业务增速，第二位就是它们的资本开支指引，”他表示，“一旦这些公司开始下调指引，往往说明它们已经察觉到需求端出了问题。”          融资枯竭对应2008年金融危机的教训。乔西克关注的核心变量是资本开支占经营现金流的比例，亚马逊这一比例已接近100%，亚马逊、微软、谷歌等超大规模云厂商合计约为70%。         “我相信，一旦这个比例逼近甚至超过100%，市场对这些公司融资的态度就不会像现在这样友善。”乔西克提到，谷歌近期已经开始发债支持扩张。此外，科技行业高收益债利差、“新云”公司（如CoreWeave、甲骨文）的股价表现，以及OpenAI和Anthropic两家公司未来的上市时点，都是判断融资环境是否收紧的辅助信号，“这说明现在的市场环境可能已经是最好的时候了，所以它们才要上市。

H | ”          折旧是否被低估          值得关注的是，资本开支占经营现金流的比例，有可能掩盖了折旧对企业盈利的实际侵蚀。

I | 该指标所依据的经营现金流会将折旧加回，因此无法反映折旧在利润表层面造成的拖累，而如果单独测算折旧压力，数据中心繁荣的拐点是否会提前出现？          对于第一财经记者的提问，乔西克在回应中承认，这一质疑成立。“确实，我能理解这会被视为一种激进的会计处理方式。”但他表示，更重要的变量是企业是否会因为不愿耗尽经营现金流，而转向发债融资。         “让我们把注意力放在真正重要的因素上，”他说，市场会看到企业债务开始增加，一旦市场对新增债务作出负面反应，就意味着“资本纪律”正式回归。他将这一现象称为“资本开支义警”。在他看来，与其纠结折旧的会计处理方式，不如紧盯云销售增速与资本开支增速的相对关系，这才是真正决定市场情绪的变量。         这一问题延伸出另一层担忧，即GPU资产本身的折旧年限是否被低估。乔西克的回应是，训练阶段需要性能最强的芯片，但推理阶段对算力速度的要求更低，这意味着旧款GPU在被训练环节淘汰后，仍可以流入推理场景继续使用，加之二手GPU市场已经存在，实际使用寿命可能长于市场的悲观假设。“我不认为这像有些人渲染的那样严重。         (本文来自第一财经)。

J |

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